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arXiv · 2312.11585

NORA-Surge: A storm surge hindcast for the Norwegian Sea, the North Sea and the Barents Sea

Nils Melsom Kristensen·Paulina Tedesco·Jean Rabault·Ole Johan Aarnes·Øyvind Saetra·Øyvind Breivik
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Abstract

Knowledge about statistics for water level variations along the coast due to storm surge is important for the utilization of the coastal zone. An open and freely available storm surge hindcast archive covering the coast of Norway and adjacent sea areas spanning the time period 1979-2022 is presented. The storm surge model is forced by wind stress and mean sea level pressure taken from the non-hydrostatic NORA3 atmospheric hindcast. A dataset consisting of observations of water level from more than 90 water level gauges along the coasts of the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea is compiled and quality controlled, and used to assess the performance of the hindcast. The observational dataset is distributed in both time and space, and when considering all the available quality controlled data, the comparison with modelled water levels yield a mean absolute error (MAE) of 9.7 cm and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 12.4 cm. Values for MAE and RMSE scaled by the standard deviation of the observed storm surge for each station are 0.42 and 0.54 standard deviations, repsectively. When considering the geographical differences in characteristics of storm surge for different countries/regions, the values of MAE and RMSE are in the range 5.7-13.9 cm and 7.6-17.8 cm respectively, and 0.33-0.46 and 0.42-0.59 standard deviations for the scaled values. The minimum and maximum values for water level in the hindcast are -2.60 m and 3.92 m. In addition, 100-year return level estimates are calculated from the hindcast, with minimum and maximum values of, respectively, -2.75 m and 3.98 m. All minimum and maximum values are found in the southern North Sea area.

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Nils Melsom Kristensen, Paulina Tedesco, Jean Rabault, Ole Johan Aarnes, Øyvind Saetra, Øyvind Breivik. 2023-12-18. NORA-Surge: A storm surge hindcast for the Norwegian Sea, the North Sea and the Barents Sea. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102406

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