Natural sinks and sources of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere of Russian regions and their contribution to climate change in the 21st century as calculated with CMIP6 model ensemble

Abstract

The natural fluxes of CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere from the territory of Russia in the 21st century have been analyzed using the results of calculations with the ensemble of global climate models of the international project CMIP6. Estimates of natural CO2 fluxes for Russian regions differ greatly for different models. Their values for the beginning of the 21st century range from -1 to 1 GtC/yr. In the 21st century the differences in model estimates of fluxes grow and at the end of the 21st century under the scenario with the largest anthropogenic impacts SSP5-8.5 are in the range from -2.5 to 2.5 GtC/year. Estimates of natural methane emissions to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia also differ greatly for different models. Present-day methane emissions are estimated in the range from 10 to 35 MtCH4/year, while the growth in the 21st century may reach 300%. Ensemble model calculations show general trends for changes in natural greenhouse gas fluxes. Most CMIP6 ensemble models are characterized by a maximum of CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems and its further reduction by the end of the 21st century, while natural methane emissions to the atmosphere for all models and scenarios of anthropogenic forcing grow throughout the 21st century. The cumulative temperature potential of natural CO2 fluxes on the territory of Russia in the 21st century is estimated, depending on the scenario of anthropogenic impacts, from -0.3 to 0.1 K, and the warming-accelerating impact of natural CH4 emissions is estimated in the range of 0.03-0.09 K.