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arXiv · 2401.10798

Drawing a parallel between the trend of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the winters of 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 in Italy, with a prediction

Roccetti Marco
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Abstract

We studied the weekly number and the growth decline rates of COVID-19 deaths of the period from October 31, 2022 to February 9, 2023, in Italy, finding that that COVID 19 winter wave reached its peak during the three holiday weeks from December 16, 2002 to January 5, 2023, and it was definitely trending downward, returning to the same number of deaths of the end of October 2022, in the first week February 2023. During this period of 15 weeks, that wave caused a number of deaths as large as 8,526. Its percentage average growth rate was +7.89 deaths per week (10 weeks), while the percentage average weekly decline rate was -12.32 (5 weeks). At the time of writing of this paper, Italy was experiencing a new COVID 19 wave, with the latest 7 weekly bulletins available at that date (from October 26, 2023 to December 14, 2023) showing that the deaths had climbed from 148 to 322. The percentage weekly growth rate had risen by +14.08 deaths, on average. In the hypothesis that this 2023-2024 wave will have a total duration similar to that of 2022 2023, with a comparable extension of both the growing period and of the decline period and similar growth decline rates, a prediction can be cast regarding the number of COVID 19 deaths of the period from the end of October 2023 to the beginning of February 2024. They should be in the neighbourhood of 4100,4200. A preliminary assessment of this forecast, based on 11 of the 15 weeks of the period, has confirmed the accuracy of the approach.

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Roccetti Marco. 2024-01-19. Drawing a parallel between the trend of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the winters of 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 in Italy, with a prediction. https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.10798

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