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arXiv · 2401.14070

Abrupt and persistent atmospheric circulation changes in the North Atlantic under La Ni\~na conditions

Marina García-Burgos·Iñigo Gómara·Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca·Juan Jesús González-Alemán·Pablo Zurita-Gotor·Blanca Ayarzagüena
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Abstract

Several recent studies have linked the exceptional North Atlantic and Eurasian atmospheric evolution during late February and March 2018 to the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) that took place a few weeks earlier. February 2018 was characterized by an abrupt transition from the positive to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a subsequent persistence of the negative NAO for several weeks. This paper investigates the contribution of atmospheric and oceanic phenomena to both the 2018 event and a set of 19 identified analogues (including the former) for the period 1959-2022. Evidence is given that La Ni\~na conditions in the tropical Pacific and upstream North Atlantic cyclones play an important role as a trigger for these events. Ensuing two-way tropospheric-stratospheric coupling and eddy feedbacks provide extended-range persistence for negative NAO conditions. These results may help improve the prediction of such exceptional events.

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Marina García-Burgos, Iñigo Gómara, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Pablo Zurita-Gotor, Blanca Ayarzagüena. 2024-01-25. Abrupt and persistent atmospheric circulation changes in the North Atlantic under La Ni\~na conditions. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100609

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