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arXiv · 2402.06779

Source-sink dynamics in a two-patch SI epidemic model with life stages and no recovery from infection

Jimmy Calvo-Monge·Jorge Arroyo-Esquivel·Alyssa Gehman·Fabio Sanchez
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Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of a two-patch, two-life stage SI model without recovery from infection, focusing on the dynamics of disease spread and host population viability in natural populations. The model, inspired by real-world ecological crises like the decline of amphibian populations due to chytridiomycosis and sea star populations due to Sea Star Wasting Disease, aims to understand the conditions under which a sink host population can present ecological rescue from a healthier, source population. Mathematical and numerical analyses reveal the critical roles of the basic reproductive numbers of the source and sink populations, the maturation rate, and the dispersal rate of juveniles in determining population outcomes. The study identifies conditions for disease-free, endemic, and extinction equilibria in sink populations, emphasizing the potential for ecological and evolutionary mechanisms to facilitate coexistence or recovery. These findings provide insights into managing natural populations affected by disease, with implications for conservation strategies, such as the importance of maintaining reproductively viable refuge populations and considering the effects of dispersal and maturation rates on population recovery. The research underscores the complexity of host-pathogen dynamics in spatially structured environments and highlights the need for multi-faceted approaches to biodiversity conservation in the face of emerging diseases.

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Jimmy Calvo-Monge, Jorge Arroyo-Esquivel, Alyssa Gehman, Fabio Sanchez. 2024-02-09. Source-sink dynamics in a two-patch SI epidemic model with life stages and no recovery from infection. https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.06779

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