Statistical and Machine Learning Models for Predicting Fire and Other Emergency Events

Abstract

Emergency events in a city cause considerable economic loss to individuals, their families, and the community. Accurate and timely prediction of events can help the emergency fire and rescue services in preparing for and mitigating the consequences of emergency events. In this paper, we present a systematic development of predictive models for various types of emergency events in the City of Edmonton, Canada. We present methods for (i) data collection and dataset development; (ii) descriptive analysis of each event type and its characteristics at different spatiotemporal levels; (iii) feature analysis and selection based on correlation coefficient analysis and feature importance analysis; and (iv) development of prediction models for the likelihood of occurrence of each event type at different temporal and spatial resolutions. We analyze the association of event types with socioeconomic and demographic data at the neighborhood level, identify a set of predictors for each event type, and develop predictive models with negative binomial regression. We conduct evaluations at neighborhood and fire station service area levels. Our results show that the models perform well for most of the event types with acceptable prediction errors for weekly and monthly periods. The evaluation shows that the prediction accuracy is consistent at the level of the fire station, so the predictions can be used in management by fire rescue service departments for planning resource allocation for these time periods. We also examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the occurrence of events and on the accuracy of event predictor models. Our findings show that COVID-19 had a significant impact on the performance of the event prediction models.