Cartographie de l'habitat de reproduction du t\'etras-lyre (Lyrurus tetrix) dans les Alpes fran\c{c}aises

Abstract

The Black Grouse (Lyrurus tetrix) is an emblematic alpine species with high conservation importance. The population size of these mountain bird tends to decline on the reference sites and shows differences according to changes in local landscape characteristics. Habitat changes are at the centre of the identified pressures impacting part or all of its life cycle, according to experts. Hence, an approach to monitor population dynamics, is trough modelling the favourable habitats of Black Grouse breeding (nesting sites). Then, coupling modelling with multi-source remote sensing data (medium and very high spatial resolution), allowed the implementation of a spatial distribution model of the species. Indeed, the extraction of variables from remote sensing helped to describe the area studied at appropriate spatial and temporal scales: horizontal and vertical structure (heterogeneity), functioning (vegetation indices), phenology (seasonal or inter-annual dynamics) and biodiversity. An annual time series of radiometric indices (NDVI, NDWI, BI {\ldots}) from Sentinel-2 has made it possible to generate Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs) to derive phenological indications on the nature and dynamics of natural habitats. In addition, very high resolution images (SPOT6) provided access to the fine structure of natural habitats, i.e. the vertical and horizontal organisation by states identified as elementary (mineral, herbaceous, low and high woody). Indeed, one of the essential limiting factors for brood rearing is the presence of a well-developed herbaceous or ericaceous stratum in the northern Alps and larch forests in the southern region. A deep learning model was used to classify elementary strata. Finally, Biomod2 R platform, using an ensemble approach, was applied to model, the favourable habitat of Black Grouse reproduction. Of all the models, Random Forest and Extreme Boosted Gradient are the best performing, with TSS and ROC scores close to 1. For the SDM, we selected only Random Forest models (ensemble modelling) because of their low susceptibility to overfitting and coherent predictions (after comparing model predictions).In this ensemble model, the most important explanatory variables are altitude, the proportion of heathland, and the DHI (NDVI Max and NDWI Max). Results from the habitat model can be used as an operational tool for monitoring forest landscape shifts and changes. In addition, to delimiting potential areas to protect the species habitat, which constitute a valuable decision-making tool for conservation management of mountain open forest.