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arXiv · 2403.01745

Uncovering the Sino-US dynamic risk spillovers effects: Evidence from agricultural futures markets

Han-Yu Zhu·Peng-Fei Dai·Wei-Xing Zhou
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Abstract

Agricultural products play a critical role in human development. With economic globalization and the financialization of agricultural products continuing to advance, the interconnections between different agricultural futures have become closer. We utilize a TVP-VAR-DY model combined with the quantile method to measure the risk spillover between 11 agricultural futures on the futures exchanges of US and China from July 9,2014, to December 31,2022. This study yielded several significant findings. Firstly, CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat were identified as the primary risk transmitters, with DCE corn and soybean as the main risk receivers. Secondly, sudden events or increased economic uncertainty can increase the overall risk spillovers. Thirdly, there is an aggregation of risk spillovers amongst agricultural futures based on the dynamic directional spillover results. Lastly, the central agricultural futures under the conditional mean are CBOT corn and soybean, while CZCE hard wheat and long-grained rice are the two risk spillover centers in extreme cases, as per the results of the spillover network and minimum spanning tree. Based on these results, decision-makers are advised to safeguard against the price risk of agricultural futures under sudden economic events, and investors can utilize the results to construct a superior investment portfolio by taking different agricultural product futures as risk-leading indicators according to various situations.

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Han-Yu Zhu, Peng-Fei Dai, Wei-Xing Zhou. 2024-03-04. Uncovering the Sino-US dynamic risk spillovers effects: Evidence from agricultural futures markets. https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22551

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