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arXiv · 2403.03388

Is a Recent Surge in Global Warming Detectable?

Claudie Beaulieu·Colin Gallagher·Rebecca Killick·Robert Lund·Xueheng Shi
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Abstract

The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses whether an acceleration in the warming rate is detectable from a statistical perspective. We use changepoint models, which are statistical techniques specifically designed for identifying structural changes in time series. Four global mean surface temperature records over 1850-2023 are scrutinized within. Our results show limited evidence for a warming surge; in most surface temperature time series, no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is detected. As such, we estimate minimum changes in the warming trend for a surge to be detectable in the near future.

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Claudie Beaulieu, Colin Gallagher, Rebecca Killick, Robert Lund, Xueheng Shi. 2024-03-06. Is a Recent Surge in Global Warming Detectable?. https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.03388

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