Hundreds of grocery outlets needed across the United States to achieve walkable cities

Abstract

The notion of the $x$-minute city is again popular in urban planning, but the practical implications of developing walkable neighborhoods have not been rigorously explored. What is the scale of the challenge that cities needing to retrofit face? Where should new stores or amenities be located? For 500 cities in the United States, we explored how many additional supermarkets would be required to achieve various levels of $x$-minute access and where new stores should be located so that this access is equally-distributed. Our method is unique because it combines a novel measure of equality with a new model that optimally locates amenities for inequality-minimizing community access. We found that 25% of the studied cities could reach 15-minute access by adding five or fewer stores, while only 10% of the cities could even achieve 5-minute average access when using neighborhood centroids as potential sites; the cities that could, on average, required more than 100 stores each. This work provides a tool for cities to use evidenced-based planning to efficiently retrofit in order to enable active transport, benefiting both the climate and their residents' health. It also highlights the major challenge facing our cities due to the existing and ongoing car-dependent urban design that renders these goals unfeasible.