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arXiv · 2404.04213

Modelling handball outcomes using univariate and bivariate approaches

Dimitris Karlis·Rouven Michels·Marius Otting
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Abstract

Handball has received growing interest during the last years, including academic research for many different aspects of the sport. On the other hand modelling the outcome of the game has attracted less interest mainly because of the additional challenges that occur. Data analysis has revealed that the number of goals scored by each team are under-dispersed relative to a Poisson distribution and hence new models are needed for this purpose. Here we propose to circumvent the problem by modelling the score difference. This removes the need for special models since typical models for integer data like the Skellam distribution can provide sufficient fit and thus reveal some of the characteristics of the game. In the present paper we propose some models starting from a Skellam regression model and also considering zero inflated versions as well as other discrete distributions in $\mathbb Z$. Furthermore, we develop some bivariate models using copulas to model the two halves of the game and thus providing insights on the game. Data from German Bundesliga are used to show the potential of the new models.

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Dimitris Karlis, Rouven Michels, Marius Otting. 2024-04-05. Modelling handball outcomes using univariate and bivariate approaches. https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.04213

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