SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2405.17805

Strong-lensing cosmography using third-generation gravitational-wave detectors

Abstract

We present a detailed exposition of a statistical method for estimating cosmological parameters from the observation of a large number of strongly lensed binary-black-hole (BBH) mergers observable by next (third) generation (XG) gravitational-wave (GW) detectors. This method, first presented in Jana (2023 Phys. Rev. Lett. 130 261401), compares the observed number of strongly lensed GW events and their time delay distribution (between lensed images) with observed events to infer cosmological parameters. We show that the precision of the estimation of the cosmological parameters does not have a strong dependance on the assumed BBH redshift distribution model. Using the large number of unlensed mergers, XG detectors are expected to measure the BBH redshift distribution with sufficient precision for the cosmological inference. However, a biased inference of the BBH redshift distribution will bias the estimation of cosmological parameters. An incorrect model for the distribution of lens properties can also lead to a biased cosmological inference. However, Bayesian model selection can assist in selecting the right model from a set of available parametric models for the lens distribution. We also present a way to incorporate the effect of contamination in the data due to the limited efficiency of lensing identification methods, so that it will not bias the cosmological inference.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Souvik Jana, Shasvath J Kapadia, Tejaswi Venumadhav, Surhud More, Parameswaran Ajith. 2024-05-28. Strong-lensing cosmography using third-generation gravitational-wave detectors. https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6382%2Fad8d2e

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc