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arXiv · 2408.00885

A Perfect Storm: First-Nature Geography and Economic Development

Christian Vedel
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Abstract

First-nature geography shapes the location of prosperity. I provide evidence by investigating the effects when it suddenly changes. In 1825 a storm breached the Agger Isthmus. This connected Denmark's west Limfjord Region to the North Sea. I demonstrate that trade followed. Prosperity relocated with it: population rose 27.0 percent within a generation - an elasticity of 1.6 relative to market access - with occupational shifts toward fishing and manufacturing. Fertility, not migration, drove the expansion. A mirror experiment, the waterway's closure circa 1086-1208, caused symmetric declines in medieval coin and building finds.

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Christian Vedel. 2024-08-01. A Perfect Storm: First-Nature Geography and Economic Development. https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.00885

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