Likelihood inference of the non-stationary Hawkes process with non-exponential kernel

Abstract

The Hawkes process is a popular point process model for event sequences that exhibit temporal clustering. The intensity process of a Hawkes process consists of two components, the baseline intensity and the accumulated excitation effect due to past events, with the latter specified via an excitation kernel. The classical Hawkes process assumes a constant baseline intensity and an exponential excitation kernel. This results in an intensity process that is Markovian, a fact that has been used extensively to establish the strong consistency and asymtpotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators or similar. However, these assumptions can be overly restrictive and unrealistic for modelling the many applications which require the baseline intensity to vary with time and the excitation kernel to have non-exponential decay. However, asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood inference for the parameters specifying the baseline intensity and the self-exciting decay under this setup are substantially more difficult since the resulting intensity process is non-Markovian. To overcome this challenge, we develop an approximation procedure to show the intensity process is asymptotically ergodic in a suitably defined sense. This allows for the identification of an ergodic limit to the likelihood function and its derivatives, as required for obtaining large sample inference under minimal regularity conditions.