Simple robust two-stage estimation and inference for generalized impulse responses and multi-horizon causality

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel two-stage estimation and inference procedure for generalized impulse responses (GIRs). GIRs encompass all coefficients in a multi-horizon linear projection model of future outcomes of y on lagged values (Dufour and Renault, 1998), which include the Sims' impulse response. The conventional use of Least Squares (LS) with heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent covariance estimation is less precise and often results in unreliable finite sample tests, further complicated by the selection of bandwidth and kernel functions. Our two-stage method surpasses the LS approach in terms of estimation efficiency and inference robustness. The robustness stems from our proposed covariance matrix estimates, which eliminate the need to correct for serial correlation in the multi-horizon projection residuals. Our method accommodates non-stationary data and allows the projection horizon to grow with sample size. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate our two-stage method outperforms the LS method. We apply the two-stage method to investigate the GIRs, implement multi-horizon Granger causality test, and find that economic uncertainty exerts both short-run (1-3 months) and long-run (30 months) effects on economic activities.