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arXiv · 2409.12516

A Multi-agent Market Model Can Explain the Impact of AI Traders in Financial Markets -- A New Microfoundations of GARCH model

Kei Nakagawa·Masanori Hirano·Kentaro Minami·Takanobu Mizuta
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Abstract

The AI traders in financial markets have sparked significant interest in their effects on price formation mechanisms and market volatility, raising important questions for market stability and regulation. Despite this interest, a comprehensive model to quantitatively assess the specific impacts of AI traders remains undeveloped. This study aims to address this gap by modeling the influence of AI traders on market price formation and volatility within a multi-agent framework, leveraging the concept of microfoundations. Microfoundations involve understanding macroeconomic phenomena, such as market price formation, through the decision-making and interactions of individual economic agents. While widely acknowledged in macroeconomics, microfoundational approaches remain unexplored in empirical finance, particularly for models like the GARCH model, which captures key financial statistical properties such as volatility clustering and fat tails. This study proposes a multi-agent market model to derive the microfoundations of the GARCH model, incorporating three types of agents: noise traders, fundamental traders, and AI traders. By mathematically aggregating the micro-structure of these agents, we establish the microfoundations of the GARCH model. We validate this model through multi-agent simulations, confirming its ability to reproduce the stylized facts of financial markets. Finally, we analyze the impact of AI traders using parameters derived from these microfoundations, contributing to a deeper understanding of their role in market dynamics.

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Kei Nakagawa, Masanori Hirano, Kentaro Minami, Takanobu Mizuta. 2024-09-19. A Multi-agent Market Model Can Explain the Impact of AI Traders in Financial Markets -- A New Microfoundations of GARCH model. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-77367-9_9

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