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arXiv · 2409.14263

Potential root mean square error skill score

Martin János Mayer·Dazhi Yang
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Abstract

Consistency, in a narrow sense, denotes the alignment between the forecast-optimization strategy and the verification directive. The current recommended deterministic solar forecast verification practice is to report the skill score based on root mean square error (RMSE), which would violate the notion of consistency if the forecasts are optimized under another strategy such as minimizing the mean absolute error (MAE). This paper overcomes such difficulty by proposing a so-called "potential RMSE skill score," which depends only on: (1) the crosscorrelation between forecasts and observations, and (2) the autocorrelation of observations. While greatly simplifying the calculation, the new skill score does not discriminate inconsistent forecasts as much, e.g., even MAE-optimized forecasts can attain a high RMSE skill score.

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Martin János Mayer, Dazhi Yang. 2024-09-21. Potential root mean square error skill score. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0187044

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