Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2410.05458

Testing Credibility of Public and Private Surveys through the Lens of Regression

Debabrota Basu·Sourav Chakraborty·Debarshi Chanda·Buddha Dev Das·Arijit Ghosh·Arnab Ray
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Testing whether a sample survey is a credible representation of the population is an important question to ensure the validity of any downstream research. While this problem, in general, does not have an efficient solution, one might take a task-based approach and aim to understand whether a certain data analysis tool, like linear regression, would yield similar answers both on the population and the sample survey. In this paper, we design an algorithm to test the credibility of a sample survey in terms of linear regression. In other words, we design an algorithm that can certify if a sample survey is good enough to guarantee the correctness of data analysis done using linear regression tools. Nowadays, one is naturally concerned about data privacy in surveys. Thus, we further test the credibility of surveys published in a differentially private manner. Specifically, we focus on Local Differential Privacy (LDP), which is a standard technique to ensure privacy in surveys where the survey participants might not trust the aggregator. We extend our algorithm to work even when the data analysis has been done using surveys with LDP. In the process, we also propose an algorithm that learns with high probability the guarantees a linear regression model on a survey published with LDP. Our algorithm also serves as a mechanism to learn linear regression models from data corrupted with noise coming from any subexponential distribution. We prove that it achieves the optimal estimation error bound for $\ell_1$ linear regression, which might be of broader interest. We prove the theoretical correctness of our algorithms while trying to reduce the sample complexity for both public and private surveys. We also numerically demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on real and synthetic datasets.

Explore related subjects

cs.LGcs.CRstat.MEstat.ML

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Debabrota Basu, Sourav Chakraborty, Debarshi Chanda, Buddha Dev Das, Arijit Ghosh, Arnab Ray. 2024-10-07. Testing Credibility of Public and Private Surveys through the Lens of Regression. https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.05458

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

AUC Maximization from Biased Positive-unlabeled Data with Confidence

Maximizing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a standard approach to imbalanced binary classification. Although positive and negative data are required for maximizing the AUC, negative data are often difficult to collect in some real-world applications due to privacy concerns or the need for specialized expertise to annotate them. Thus, AUC maximization from positive and unlabeled (PU) data has been attracting attention. Existing methods assume that labeled positive data are unbiased samples from the true positive distribution. However, this ideal assumption is often violated in practice. In this paper, we propose a method to maximize the AUC from biased PU data. To address the bias, our key idea is to exploit {\it confidence}, i.e., the probability that an instance is positive, associated with the small number of labeled positive data. We derive an estimator of the AUC risk using biased PU data with confidence, enabling AUC maximization under such bias. We further show that the rewritten AUC risk induces a Bayes-optimal AUC ranking even when the available confidence is any strictly increasing transformation of the true posterior probability. We experimentally show the effectiveness of our method on eight real-world datasets.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Measuring the Value of World-Model Updates: A Counterfactual Utility Protocol for Continual Adaptation

Continual world models must decide whether new data justify changing the model. Fixed replay schedules and prediction-error triggers specify when to update, but neither reveals the value of an individual update: one deployment run cannot show how the same model would have performed at that moment had it held its parameters. We introduce the fork ledger, which branches a deployment stream at pre-registered decision points into matched update and hold continuations under common random numbers. It evaluates both continuations on the same episodes and records $\Delta R = R_{\mathrm{update}} - R_{\mathrm{hold}}$. Always applying one fixed update mechanism lowers return on all three simulated control tasks: CartPole ($-144.0$; checkpoint-bootstrap $95\%$ CI $[-185.4,-116.1]$, against a converged return near $650$), Walker ($-82.8$; $[-101.1,-61.7]$) and Cheetah ($-18.6$; $[-29.0,-6.6]$). Divergence is an outcome of applying the update, so the estimand counts every attempted fork; restricted to the $693$ of $720$ that did not collapse, CartPole and Walker are unchanged in sign ($-113.4$ and $-82.1$) and Cheetah becomes unresolved ($-3.9$; $[-17.5,+13.0]$). The task is the unit of inference: each contributes $240$ attempted forks over five pretrained checkpoints crossed with two drift directions. The ledger makes counterfactual utility observable for a fixed mechanism, allowing triggers to be judged by the updates they select rather than by surprise detection alone.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

When More Is Not Better: Component Anti-Synergy in a P300 Speller

P300 brain-computer interface (BCI) spellers can provide hands-free communication for people with severe motor impairments. Modern pipelines combine multiple individually promising components, often assuming that 'more-is-better'. We tested this assumption using a four-component full-factorial experiment varying the inclusion of Euclidean Alignment (EA), xDAWN spatial filtering, subject calibration, and language model priors on a public P300 dataset. Performance was evaluated using accuracy, repetitions, and information transfer rate (ITR) with mixed-effects models. Results show that the value of components is conditional rather than additive. Calibration was the strongest singular contributor, while EA compensated for its absence in zero-calibration settings. Adding independently useful components could also reduce performance, revealing component anti-synergy. Contrary to conventional wisdom, LM support was not universally beneficial: its effect depends strongly on the strength of the underlying EEG pipeline, while results from a larger LM showed a similar pattern. Together, these findings challenge maximal 'all-on' pipeline design and highlight the value of selecting spatial and language-support components according to the quality of available EEG evidence.

cs.LG↗