Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2410.12993

Opinion-driven risk perception and reaction in SIS epidemics

Marcela Ordorica Arango·Anastasia Bizyaeva·Simon A. Levin·Naomi Ehrich Leonard
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

We present and analyze a mathematical model to study the feedback between behavior and epidemic spread in a population that is actively assessing and reacting to risk of infection. In our model, a population dynamically forms an opinion that reflects its willingness to engage in risky behavior (e.g., not wearing a mask in a crowded area) or reduce it (e.g., social distancing). We consider SIS epidemic dynamics in which the contact rate within a population adapts as a function of its opinion. For the new coupled model, we prove the existence of two distinct parameter regimes. One regime corresponds to a low baseline infectiousness, and the equilibria of the epidemic spread are identical to those of the standard SIS model. The other regime corresponds to a high baseline infectiousness, and there is a bistability between two new endemic equilibria that reflect an initial preference towards either risk seeking behavior or risk aversion. We prove that risk seeking behavior increases the steady-state infection level in the population compared to the baseline SIS model, whereas risk aversion decreases it. When a population is highly reactive to extreme opinions, we show how risk aversion enables the complete eradication of infection in the population. Extensions of the model to a network of populations or individuals are explored numerically.

Explore related subjects

math.DSphysics.soc-phq-bio.PE

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Marcela Ordorica Arango, Anastasia Bizyaeva, Simon A. Levin, Naomi Ehrich Leonard. 2024-10-16. Opinion-driven risk perception and reaction in SIS epidemics. https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.12993

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Admissible Fourier Lengths, KAM Reducibility, and Spectral Applications

We develop a perturbative KAM reducibility theory for one-frequency $\mathrm{SL}(2,\mathbb{R})$ cocycles based on an admissible Fourier length $\ell$. The regularity relevant to the iteration is measured by positive adapted Fourier width rather than ordinary smoothness in the Euclidean length $|n|$. The same length governs Fourier decay, truncation and resonance scales, and the arithmetic condition controlling the small divisors. This framework contains the classical analytic and Gevrey settings, while non-monotone choices of $\ell$ allow classical nowhere differentiable Weierstrass-type perturbations and continuous perturbations outside every positive H\"older class. As spectral applications, we obtain purely absolutely continuous spectrum for every phase and $1/2$-H\"older continuity of the integrated density of states for the associated quasiperiodic Schr\"odinger operators. The Aubry dual has pure point spectrum for Lebesgue almost every dual phase, with eigenfunctions exponentially localized in the metric induced by $\ell$. We also construct nowhere differentiable quasiperiodic potentials with purely absolutely continuous Cantor spectrum.

math.DS↗
arXiv2026

Dynamics inside the attracting basins of some skew products

Polynomial skew products in $\mathbb{C}^2$ are maps of the form $F(z,w)=(P(z),Q(z,w))$, where $P$ and $Q$ are polynomials. Their local dynamics have been widely investigated. In this paper, we study the global dynamics inside Fatou components of some skew products. We consider all the inverse images in a Fatou component of a given point and use the Kobayashi metric to measure the distance between points. In the cases we consider, there are always arbitrarily large Kobayashi balls in the complement of these inverse sets.

math.DS↗
arXiv2026

Ergodicity of dynamical systems without uniqueness of orbits

Recently, there has been considerable interest in the study of non-deterministic dynamical systems. To analyze the chaotic behavior of such systems from a measure-theoretic viewpoint, it is desirable to consider ergodicity. However, the classical definition of ergodicity involves invariant sets, whose definition is not unique for non-deterministic dynamical systems. Thus, we are led to the question of which invariance yields an interesting definition of ergodicity. Here, we propose a definition based on the strong backward invariance and show that analogs of classical results hold. We also consider implications of the Birkhoff ergodic theorem for systems without uniqueness of orbits.

math.DS↗