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arXiv · 2410.20757

Deciphering culprits for cyanobacterial blooms and lake vulnerability in north-temperate lakes

Jacob Serpico·B. A. Zambrano-Luna·Russell Milne·Christopher M. Heggerud·Alan Hastings·Hao Wang
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Abstract

Harmful cyanobacterial blooms (CBs) are increasingly prevalent worldwide, posing significant environmental and health concerns. We derive a stoichiometric model describing the population dynamics and toxicity of cyanobacteria in north-temperate freshwater ecosystems. Our model quantifies the hypoxic effects of CBs on fish mortality and evaluates the impact of microcystin-LR (MC-LR) on aquatic macro-invertebrates, phytoplankton, and fish species. Analyzing data from diverse north-temperate lakes with varying physical characteristics, we identify eutrophication as a pivotal catalyst in bloom proliferation. Under predicted warming scenarios coupled with increased eutrophication, peak MC-LR concentrations will surge dramatically, and blooms will occur earlier in the year. We uncover severe bioaccumulation of MC-LR in higher trophic species; the response to CBs among fish at intermediate trophic levels was heterogeneous across lakes. We compare our model against observations from several north-temperate lakes, demonstrating its robustness and applicability. Our insights are critical for informing targeted interventions to mitigate CBs.

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Jacob Serpico, B. A. Zambrano-Luna, Russell Milne, Christopher M. Heggerud, Alan Hastings, Hao Wang. 2024-10-28. Deciphering culprits for cyanobacterial blooms and lake vulnerability in north-temperate lakes. https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.20757

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