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arXiv · 2410.20882

The unrealized potential of agroforestry for an emissions-intensive agricultural commodity

Alexander Becker·Jan D. Wegner·Evans Dawoe·Konrad Schindler·William J. Thompson·Christian Bunn·Rachael D. Garrett·Fabio Castro-Llanos·Simon P. Hart·Wilma J. Blaser-Hart
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Abstract

Reconciling agricultural production with climate-change mitigation is a formidable sustainability problem. Retaining trees in agricultural systems is one proposed solution, but the magnitude of the current and future-potential benefit that trees contribute to climate-change mitigation remains uncertain. Here, we help to resolve these issues across a West African region that produces ~60% of the world's cocoa, a crop contributing one of the highest carbon footprints of all foods. Using machine learning, we mapped shade-tree cover and carbon stocks across the region and found that existing average cover is low (~13%) and poorly aligned with climate threats. Yet, increasing shade-tree cover to a minimum of 30% could sequester an additional 307 million tonnes of CO2e, enough to offset ~167% of contemporary cocoa-related emissions in Ghana and C\^ote d'Ivoire--without reducing production. Our approach is transferable to other shade-grown crops and aligns with emerging carbon market and sustainability reporting frameworks.

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Alexander Becker, Jan D. Wegner, Evans Dawoe, Konrad Schindler, William J. Thompson, Christian Bunn, Rachael D. Garrett, Fabio Castro-Llanos, Simon P. Hart, Wilma J. Blaser-Hart. 2024-10-28. The unrealized potential of agroforestry for an emissions-intensive agricultural commodity. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01608-7

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