Estimating the epidemic threshold under individual vaccination behaviour and adaptive social connections: A game-theoretic complex network model

Viney Kumar; Chris T Bauch; Samit Bhattacharyya

Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2410.21344

Estimating the epidemic threshold under individual vaccination behaviour and adaptive social connections: A game-theoretic complex network model

Viney Kumar·Chris T Bauch·Samit Bhattacharyya

View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Information dissemination intricately intertwines with the dynamics of infectious diseases in the contemporary interconnected world. Recognizing the critical role of public awareness, individual vaccination choices appear to be an essential factor in collective efforts against emerging health threats. This study aims to characterize disease transmission dynamics under evolving social connections, information sharing, and individual vaccination decisions. To address this important problem, we present an integrated behaviour-prevalence model on an adaptive multiplex network. While the physical layer (layer-II) focuses on disease transmission under vaccination, the virtual layer (layer-I), representing individuals' social contacts, is adaptive and deals with information dissemination, resulting in the dynamics of vaccination choice in a socially influenced environment. Utilizing the microscopic Markov Chain Method (MMCM), we derive analytical expressions of the epidemic threshold for populations with different levels of perceived vaccine risk. It indicates that the adaptive nature of social contacts contributes to the higher epidemic threshold compared to non-adaptive scenarios, and numerical simulations also support that. The network topology, such as the power-law exponent of a scale-free network, also significantly influences the spreading of infections in the network population. We also observe that vaccine uptake increases proportionately with the number of individuals with a higher perceived infection risk or a higher sensitivity of an individual to their non-vaccinated neighbours. As a result, our findings provide insights for public health officials in developing vaccination programs in light of the evolution of social connections, information dissemination, and vaccination choice in the digital era.

Explore related subjects

physics.soc-ph q-bio.PE

Keep this discovery

BibTeX RIS

Viney Kumar, Chris T Bauch, Samit Bhattacharyya. 2024-10-28. Estimating the epidemic threshold under individual vaccination behaviour and adaptive social connections: A game-theoretic complex network model. https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.21344

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Energy pathway variety and the progress of the energy transition in European countries

The integration of new energy forms into existing energy infrastructure has emerged as a critical challenge in the context of the pursuit of a sustainable energy transition. One of the main challenges is understanding how this integration takes place not only from the introduction, but also as energy follows existing paths or creates new ones through which it is transformed and used by different activities. Here we introduce techniques from network science to analyse this process for the case of 29 European countries between 1992 and 2021. We study how new energy forms increase or decrease the variety (heterogeneity) of paths through the system of each country by establishing new ones and replacing or phasing out existing ones. We find that the transition to systems based on renewable energy is characterised by an initial increase in the variety of paths while the heterogeneity of paths decreases at the end of the transition, when the proportion of non-renewables in the system tends to zero. We then demonstrate that greater heterogeneity (complexity) is associated with larger annual fluctuations in the proportion of non-renewable sources in the system, establishing a direct relationship between the progress of the transition and the complexity of the energy system in which it occurs. This contributes to the understanding of general properties of the dynamics of the energy transition and effects that accelerate or deter it.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Fundamental limits to identifying node and tie memory in temporal networks: marginal artefacts and spreading dynamics

Temporal-network models attribute memory in contact data to either node self-excitation (branching ratio n_node) or tie reinforcement (kappa), carrying major consequences for epidemic spreading. We prove that when event initiators are observed, the two mechanisms are orthogonal: the Fisher information is block-diagonal and neither trades off against the other. In undirected proximity data, where initiators are unobserved, marginalising over them couples the mechanisms into a structural confound that survives posterior smoothing. On empirical proximity, messaging, and email records, however, a cruder failure dominates: fitted node memory is pinned to the inter-event marginal law and remains virtually invariant across latent label posterior samples (coefficient of variation below 1%). An inter-event-order shuffle test and burstiness-memory diagnostics reveal that exponential-Hawkes node memory is recovered from none, while tie reinforcement remains identifiable throughout. This near-unidentifiability is intrinsic, not an artefact of the exponential kernel: refitting flexible scale-free (sum-of-exponentials) kernels on synthetic power-law self-exciting processes fails to distinguish genuine node memory from memoryless renewal controls, with identical collapses recurring on algorithmic networks (edit bots, cloud microservices) and cortical spiking. Downstream epidemic consequences are quantitative: simulations fitted to empirical contact records under-predict outbreak sizes by up to a factor of 2.5 and shift the epidemic threshold. We conclude that observational temporal networks face a two-fold identifiability boundary: contact directionality is essential to decouple tie reinforcement, whereas heavy-tailed node self-excitation is intrinsically unidentifiable from contact timings alone.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Assessing extreme flood impacts on urban rail transit: A passenger-oriented, resilience-informed framework

Urban rail transit systems (URTSs) are increasingly exposed to extreme floods following heavy precipitation, yet passenger travel impacts are often assessed through delay-based indicators that overlook infeasible journeys under large-scale disruptions. This study develops a passenger-oriented, resilience-informed framework for assessing flood impacts on URTS journeys from disruption onset to recovery completion. The framework presents a novel six-category classification of journey impacts, explicitly considering rerouting, alternative station use, and a delay threshold. It is demonstrated through hourly dynamic simulations of 15 London URTS lines under 30-year, 100-year, and 1,000-year flood risk scenarios. Results indicate that severe flood disruptions lead to substantial unsatisfied demand, driven primarily by unavailable routes rather than unacceptable delays. Compared with finer behaviour adjustments, rerouting dominates travel impacts. These findings highlight the significance of moving beyond delay-based assessment and provide valuable evidence on essential behavioural mechanisms for strategic-level stress testing intended to inform URTS flood resilience intervention planning.

physics.soc-ph↗