Increasing power and robustness in screening trials by testing stored specimens in the control arm

Abstract

Background: Screening trials require large sample sizes and long time-horizons to demonstrate mortality reductions. We recently proposed increasing statistical power by testing stored control-arm specimens, called the Intended Effect (IE) design. To evaluate feasibility of the IE design, the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) is collecting blood specimens in the control-arm of the NCI Vanguard Multicancer Detection pilot feasibility trial. However, key assumptions of the IE design require more investigation and relaxation. Methods: We relax the IE design to (1) reduce costs by testing only a stratified sample of control-arm specimens by incorporating inverse-probability sampling weights, (2) correct for potential loss-of-signal in stored control-arm specimens, and (3) correct for non-compliance with control-arm specimen collections. We also examine sensitivity to unintended effects of screening. Results: In simulations, testing all primary-outcome control-arm specimens and a 50% sample of the rest maintains nearly all the power of the IE while only testing half the control-arm specimens. Power remains increased from the IE analysis (versus the standard analysis) even if unintended effects exist. The IE design is robust to some loss-of-signal scenarios, but otherwise requires retest-positive fractions that correct bias at a small loss of power. The IE can be biased and lose power under control-arm non-compliance scenarios, but corrections correct bias and can increase power. Conclusions: The IE design can be made more cost-efficient and robust to loss-of-signal. Unintended effects will not typically reduce the power gain over the standard trial design. Non-compliance with control-arm specimen collections can cause bias and loss of power that can be mitigated by corrections. Although promising, practical experience with the IE design in screening trials is necessary.