Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2411.08150

Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Integral Projection Models in Population Ecology

Yunzhe Zhou·Giles Hooker
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Integral projection models (IPMs) are widely used to study population growth and the dynamics of demographic structure (e.g. age and size distributions) within a population.These models use data on individuals' growth, survival, and reproduction to predict changes in the population from one time point to the next and use these in turn to ask about long-term growth rates, the sensitivity of that growth rate to environmental factors, and aspects of the long term population such as how much reproduction concentrates in a few individuals; these quantities are not directly measurable from data and must be inferred from the model. Building IPMs requires us to develop models for individual fates over the next time step -- Did they survive? How much did they grow or shrink? Did they Reproduce? -- conditional on their initial state as well as on environmental covariates in a manner that accounts for the unobservable quantities that are are ultimately interested in estimating.Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) methods are particularly well-suited to a framework in which we are largely interested in the consequences of models. These build machine learning-based models that estimate the probability distribution of the data we observe and define a target of inference as a function of these. The initial estimate for the distribution is then modified by tilting in the direction of the efficient influence function to both de-bias the parameter estimate and provide more accurate inference. In this paper, we employ TMLE to develop robust and efficient estimators for properties derived from a fitted IPM. Mathematically, we derive the efficient influence function and formulate the paths for the least favorable sub-models. Empirically, we conduct extensive simulations using real data from both long term studies of Idaho steppe plant communities and experimental Rotifer populations.

Explore related subjects

stat.MEstat.APstat.ML

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Yunzhe Zhou, Giles Hooker. 2024-11-12. Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Integral Projection Models in Population Ecology. https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.08150

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Surprise Reduction and Nullification in Bayesian and Inverse Bayesian Inference under Ambiguous Prediction-Error Attribution

In non-stationary environments, prediction errors may signal environmental change or transient outliers, and adaptive systems must track such changes without overreacting to outliers. We distinguish surprise reduction, which updates beliefs to fit observations, from surprise nullification, which weakens constraints imposed by the predictive structure, and formalize both within Bayesian and inverse Bayesian (BIB) inference. Belief and likelihood updates are derived from variational objectives sharing a nullification strength, determined endogenously by minimizing surprise under the candidate post-update predictive distribution. In the Gaussian case, nullification expands belief and likelihood variances by a common factor relative to standard Bayesian updating, leaving the ratio unchanged. BIB thus defers attribution of the prediction error, committing to neither latent-state change nor observation-process uncertainty. The nullification strength is carried over as a candidate and is maintained or released according to the predictive surprise of the next observation. In a mean estimation task with outliers and changepoints, no scanned parameter setting of a Sage-Husa-type adaptive Kalman filter, fixed-strength BIB variant, or belief-forgetting-only variant outperforms BIB in both changepoint tracking and post-outlier stability. An oracle-informed reduced Bayesian model tracks changepoints better but is less stable after outliers. Although BIB maintains no explicit hypotheses about changepoints or outliers, it generates event-dependent dynamics. The learning rate increases after changepoints, whereas after outliers, nullification is released, and this increase is suppressed. Deferring attribution and letting subsequent observations differentiate the responses may constitute a principle of adaptive inference in non-stationary environments.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Generalized Ridge Refitting for the Lasso and Prediction Improvement Bounds

We study a class of Lasso based estimators obtained by applying a quadratic correction on the Lasso equicorrelation set. The penalty matrix determines both the magnitude and geometry of the correction and contains, among other cases, the isotropic Lasso--Ridge correction, least squares refitting, Gram proportional interpolation between the Lasso and least squares, and coordinate specific penalties. We first derive a closed form representation and isolate the positive gain component of the resulting prediction improvement. We then control the remaining stochastic linear term in expectation by localizing the random signed equicorrelation model around a deterministic reference support. This yields a finite sample expectation bound that explicitly accounts for the randomness induced by Lasso model selection. The resulting decomposition provides a unified framework for understanding when Lasso based quadratic corrections can improve prediction.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Discretization in covariate-adaptive randomization: gains and losses

Covariate-adaptive randomization(CAR) is widely implemented in clinical trials to balance prognostic covariates across treatment arms. Continuous covariates are often discretized into strata in practice, yet their consequences are not clearly understood. This paper provides a comprehensive study of the impact of discretization on both the CAR design process and the inferential results thereafter. We establish the asymptotic properties of both imbalance measures and treatment effect estimators under discretized and non-discretized settings. Practical recommendations are given on when and how discretization should be employed. We show that discretization in design is generally recommended, as it enhances robustness against model misspecification. However, if the true model is known, the most efficient strategy is to balance covariates according to that model in the design. The theoretical results are corroborated by extensive simulation studies and an empirical application to a diabetes trial dataset. Together, the results clarify the gains and losses of discretization in CAR and pave the way for learning impact of discretization to other designs and beyond.

stat.ME↗