Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2412.00039

Modeling H1N1 Influenza Transmission and Control: Epidemic Theory Insights Across Mexico, Italy, and South Africa

Md Kamrujjaman·Kazi Mehedi Mohammad
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

This study incorporates mathematical analysis, focusing on developing theories and conducting numerical simulations of Influenza virus transmission using real-world data. The terms in the equations introduce parameters which are determined by fitting the model for matching clinical data sets using non-linear least-square method. The purpose is to determine the wave trend, critical illness factors and forecast for Influenza in national levels of Mexico, Italy, and South Africa and to investigate the effectiveness of control policy and making some suggestions of alternative control policies. Data were extracted from the following sources: published literature, surveillance, unpublished reports, and websites of Centres For Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) \cite{CDC}, Natality report of U.S. clinics and World Health Organization (WHO) Influenza Disease Dashboard \cite{WHO}. We included total 120 weeks data (which are calculated as per thousand) from October 01, 2020 to March 31, 2023 \cite{CDC}, throughout this study. Numerical and sensitivity analysis are carried out to determine some prevent strategies. The objectives of local and global sensitivity analysis is to determine the dominating parameters and effective correlation with $\mathcal{R}_0$. We presented data fitting, Latin hypercube sampling, sensitivity indices, Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient, p-value, estimation of the nature of $\mathcal{R}_0$ from available data to show validation of the model with these counties. The aim is to determine optimal control strategies with drug administration schemes, treatments which represent the efficacy of drug inhabiting viral production and preventing new infections, minimizes the systematic cost based on the percentage effect of the drug. Finally, we present series of numerical examples and the effect of different parameters on the compartments to verify theoretical results.

Explore related subjects

math.GM

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Md Kamrujjaman, Kazi Mehedi Mohammad. 2024-11-22. Modeling H1N1 Influenza Transmission and Control: Epidemic Theory Insights Across Mexico, Italy, and South Africa. https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.00039

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Average Chord Lengths in a Triangle

Let $P$ be a point inside a triangle $T$. We consider the average length of the chords of $T$ through $P$, where the direction of the chord is chosen uniformly. An elementary formula is obtained in terms of the distances from $P$ to the sides and vertices of the triangle. Several classical triangle centers give especially simple specializations. For example, if $I$ is the incenter, then \[ M_T(I)=\frac{2r}{\pi} \log\left(\cot\frac A4\cot\frac B4\cot\frac C4\right). \] Our main result is the sharp inequality \[ M_T(P)\le \frac{p}{\pi\sqrt3}\log(2+\sqrt3), \] valid simultaneously for every triangle of perimeter $p$ and every interior point $P$. Thus, among all such pairs $(T,P)$, the largest possible average chord length occurs only when $T$ is equilateral and $P$ is its center. The proof is an elementary symmetrization argument. We close with brief remarks relating the problem to the radial center of a convex body, the electrostatic potential center of a triangle, and dual quermassintegrals.

math.GM↗
arXiv2026

A Proof of Liu's Conjecture on the Fundamental Triangle Inequality

Let $a,b,c$ be the side lengths of a triangle, and let $R$ and $r$ denote its circumradius and inradius, respectively. We prove a conjecture of Liu stating that \[\sum_{\mathrm{cyc}} \left(\frac{a(b+c-a)}{bc}\right)^k \geq 2+\left(\frac{2r}{R}\right)^k,~~k>1, \] with the reverse inequality for $0<k<1$. The proof reduces the problem to three positive variables with fixed sum and product. We also determine the equality cases.

math.GM↗