Uncovering Correlations and Biases in Parameter Inference from Neutron-Star Pulse Profile Modeling

Abstract

Modeling of X-ray pulse profiles from millisecond pulsars offers a promising method of inferring the mass-to-radius ratios of neutron stars. Recent observations with NICER resulted in measurements of radii for three neutron stars using this technique. In this paper, we explore correlations between model parameters and the degree to which individual parameters can be inferred from pulse profiles, using an analytic model that allows for an efficient and interpretable exploration. We introduce a new set of model parameters that reduce the most prominent correlations and allow for an efficient sampling of posteriors. We then demonstrate that the degree of beaming of radiation emerging from the neutron star surface has a large impact on the uncertainties in the inferred model parameters. Finally, we show that the uncertainties in the model parameters for neutron stars for which the polar cap temperature falls outside of the NICER energy range are significantly degraded.