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arXiv · 2412.14361

Refining and Robust Backtesting of A Century of Profitable Industry Trends

Alessandro Massaad·Rene Moawad·Oumaima Nijad Fares·Sahaphon Vairungroj
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Abstract

We revisit the long-only trend-following strategy presented in A Century of Profitable Industry Trends by Zarattini and Antonacci, which achieved exceptional historical performance with an 18.2% annualized return and a Sharpe Ratio of 1.39. While the results outperformed benchmarks, practical implementation raises concerns about robustness and evolving market conditions. This study explores modifications addressing reliance on T-bills, alternative fallback allocations, and industry exclusions. Despite attempts to enhance adaptability through momentum signals, parameter optimization, and Walk-Forward Analysis, results reveal persistent challenges. The results highlight challenges in adapting historical strategies to modern markets and offer insights for future trend-following frameworks.

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Alessandro Massaad, Rene Moawad, Oumaima Nijad Fares, Sahaphon Vairungroj. 2024-12-18. Refining and Robust Backtesting of A Century of Profitable Industry Trends. https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.14361

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