Post-pandemic social contacts in Italy: implications for social distancing measures on in-person school and work attendance

Lorenzo Lucchini; Valentina Marziano; Filippo Trentini; Chiara Chiavenna; Elena D'Agnese; Vittoria Offeddu; Mattia Manica; Piero Poletti; Duilio Balsamo; Giorgio Guzzetta; Marco Aielli; Alessia Melegaro; Stefano Merler

arXiv · 2412.18549

Post-pandemic social contacts in Italy: implications for social distancing measures on in-person school and work attendance

Lorenzo Lucchini·Valentina Marziano·Filippo Trentini·Chiara Chiavenna·Elena D'Agnese·Vittoria Offeddu·Mattia Manica·Piero Poletti·Duilio Balsamo·Giorgio Guzzetta·Marco Aielli·Alessia Melegaro·Stefano Merler

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Abstract

The collection of updated data on social contact patterns following the COVID-19 pandemic disruptions is crucial for future epidemiological assessments and evaluating non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) based on physical distancing. We conducted two waves of an online survey in March 2022 and March 2023 in Italy, gathering data from a representative population sample on direct (verbal/physical interactions) and indirect (prolonged co-location in indoor spaces) contacts. Using a generalized linear mixed model, we examined determinants of individuals' total social contacts and evaluated the potential impact of work-from-home and distance learning on the transmissibility of respiratory pathogens. In-person attendance at work or school emerged as a primary driver of social contacts. Adults attending in person reported a mean of 1.69 (95% CI: 1.56-1.84) times the contacts of those staying home; among children and adolescents, this ratio increased to 2.38 (95% CI: 1.98-2.87). We estimated that suspending all non-essential work alone would marginally reduce transmissibility. However, combining distance learning for all education levels with work-from-home policies could decrease transmissibility by up to 23.7% (95% CI: 18.2%-29.0%). Extending these measures to early childcare services would yield only minimal additional benefits. These results provide useful data for modelling the transmission of respiratory pathogens in Italy after the end of the COVID-19 emergency. They also provide insights into the potential epidemiological effectiveness of social distancing interventions targeting work and school attendance, supporting considerations on the balance between the expected benefits and their heavy societal costs.

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Lorenzo Lucchini, Valentina Marziano, Filippo Trentini, Chiara Chiavenna, Elena D'Agnese, Vittoria Offeddu, Mattia Manica, Piero Poletti, Duilio Balsamo, Giorgio Guzzetta, Marco Aielli, Alessia Melegaro, Stefano Merler. 2024-12-24. Post-pandemic social contacts in Italy: implications for social distancing measures on in-person school and work attendance. https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.18549

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