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arXiv · 2412.18858

Identifiability of the spatial SEIR-HCD model of COVID-19 propagation

Olga Krivorotko·Tatiana Zvonareva·Andrei Neverov
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Abstract

This paper investigates the identifiability of a spatial mathematical model of the spread of fast-moving epidemics based on the law of acting masses and diffusion processes. The research algorithm is based on global methods of Sobol sensitivity analysis and Bayesian approach, which together allowed to reduce the variation boundaries of unknown parameters for further solving the problem of parameter identification by measurements of the number of detected cases, critical and dead. It is shown that for identification of diffusion coefficients responsible for the rate of movement of individuals in space, it is necessary to use additional information about the process.

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Olga Krivorotko, Tatiana Zvonareva, Andrei Neverov. 2024-12-25. Identifiability of the spatial SEIR-HCD model of COVID-19 propagation. https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.18858

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