Bayesian Statistical Modeling in Action for Estimation and Forecasting in Low- and Middle-income Countries: The Case of the Family Planning Estimation Tool

Leontine Alkema; Herbert Susmann; Evan Ray; Shauna Mooney; Niamh Cahill; Kristin Bietsch; A. A. Jayachandran; Rogers Kagimu; Priya Emmart; Zenon Mujani; Khan Muhammad; Brighton Muzavazi; Rebecca Rosenberg; John Stover; Emily Sonneveldt

arXiv · 2501.00007

Bayesian Statistical Modeling in Action for Estimation and Forecasting in Low- and Middle-income Countries: The Case of the Family Planning Estimation Tool

Leontine Alkema·Herbert Susmann·Evan Ray·Shauna Mooney·Niamh Cahill·Kristin Bietsch·A. A. Jayachandran·Rogers Kagimu·Priya Emmart·Zenon Mujani·Khan Muhammad·Brighton Muzavazi·Rebecca Rosenberg·John Stover·Emily Sonneveldt

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Abstract

The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) is used in low- and middle-income countries to produce estimates and short-term forecasts of family planning indicators, such as modern contraceptive use and unmet need for contraceptives. Estimates are obtained via a Bayesian statistical model that is fitted to country-specific data from surveys and service statistics data. The model has evolved over the last decade based on user inputs. In this paper we summarize the main features of the statistical model used in FPET and introduce recent updates related to capturing contraceptive transitions, fitting to survey data that may be error prone, and the use of service statistics data. We assess model performance through a validation exercise and find that FPET is reasonably well calibrated. We use our experience with FPET to briefly discuss lessons learned and open challenges related to the broader field of statistical modeling for monitoring of demographic and global health indicators.

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Leontine Alkema, Herbert Susmann, Evan Ray, Shauna Mooney, Niamh Cahill, Kristin Bietsch, A. A. Jayachandran, Rogers Kagimu, Priya Emmart, Zenon Mujani, Khan Muhammad, Brighton Muzavazi, Rebecca Rosenberg, John Stover, Emily Sonneveldt. 2024-11-26. Bayesian Statistical Modeling in Action for Estimation and Forecasting in Low- and Middle-income Countries: The Case of the Family Planning Estimation Tool. https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.00007

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