SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2501.07514

A Ranking Representation of Optimal Sequential Search

Abstract

Sequential search models provide a powerful framework for studying consumer search using rich data that records the sequence of consumer actions taken during the search process. In existing empirical applications, their implementation often builds on optimal policies, in which later decisions depend on outcomes from earlier actions that are often fully observed by researchers. Therefore, implementation is largely restricted by computation burden and limited model flexibility. This paper establishes a theoretical equivalence showing that, under common and mild assumptions of Independence and Invariance, a sequential search process is optimal if and only if a corresponding ranking over all feasible actions throughout the process holds, thereby introducing a ranking representation of optimal sequential search. This representation enables a novel, simple, and unified empirical strategy for implementing sequential search models. For the classic \cite{weitzman1979optimal} model, the proposed approach reduces simulation requirements while improving accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of implementation. We further show that the same strategy extends to a broad class of sequential search settings, including partially observed action sequences and multi-stage information acquisition, such as discovery. Overall, the results enhance both the tractability and the empirical applicability of sequential search models.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Tinghan Zhang. 2025-01-13. A Ranking Representation of Optimal Sequential Search. https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.07514

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Identification in Linear Quantile Panel Models

This paper studies identification in linear quantile panel models with unrestricted individual heterogeneity when the number of time periods is fixed and small. We impose strict exogeneity, whereby the conditional quantile restriction holds given the individual's complete regressor history and latent individual effect, but otherwise allow the disturbances to be arbitrarily dependent over time.

econ.EM

Experimental Design for Policy Choice

We show how to optimally design experiments when the resulting data will be used to choose a welfare-maximizing policy subject to constraints. A decision maker seeks to maximize Bayes expected welfare by choosing a policy whose effects depend on an unknown finite-dimensional parameter. The decision maker has access to a first wave of experimental data with a fixed design but may choose the design of a second wave that will be collected before choosing the policy. The resulting experimental design--policy choice problem is a very high-dimensional dynamic program that is generally intractable in finite samples. We propose a tractable approximation based on the limit experiment and show it is asymptotically optimal using a new asymptotic representation theorem for adaptive experiments with continuous treatments. We apply the method to a conditional cash transfer experiment and demonstrate the potential for large gains from tailoring the experiment to the policy choice.

econ.EM

Designing Spatial Treatments

Spatial treatments are interventions assigned to locations potentially distinct from those of the responding units. We study their optimal design under a general model in which a unit's response diminishes with distance to a treated site. Our estimand of interest is an ``uncontaminated'' effect equal to the average impact of a single intervention site over all hypothetical sites. We propose a novel design based on a Mat\'{e}rn point process which separates treatments by a distance of at least $r$. A larger choice of $r$ reduces bias by separating interventions but increases variance by reducing their numerosity. We choose $r$ to maximize the rate of convergence of a Horvitz-Thompson estimator and prove that this is minimax rate-optimal. We provide weak conditions under which the estimator is asymptotically normal and propose a variance estimator.

econ.EM