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arXiv · 2501.10620

AI-Driven Hybrid Ecological Model for Predicting Oncolytic Viral Therapy Dynamics

Abicumaran Uthamacumaran·Juri Kiyokawa·Hiroaki Wakimoto
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Abstract

Oncolytic viral therapy (OVT) is an emerging precision therapy for aggressive and recurrent cancers. However, its clinical efficacy is hindered by the complexity of tumor-virus-immune interactions and the lack of predictive models for personalized treatment. This study develops a data-driven, AI-powered computational model combining time-delayed Generalized Lotka-Volterra equations with advanced optimization algorithms, including Genetic Algorithms, Differential Evolution, and Reinforcement Learning, to optimize OVT oscillations' growth and damping. We hypothesize that the model can provide accurate, real-time predictions of OVT responses while identifying key biomarkers to enhance therapeutic efficacy. The model demonstrates strong predictive accuracy, achieving mean squared error (MSE) < 0.02 and R-squared > 0.82. It also identifies experimentally validated biomarkers such as TNF, NFkB, CD81, TRAF2, IL18, and BID, among other inflammatory cytokines and extracellular matrix reconstruction factors, despite being causally agnostic and unaware of specific experimental conditions or therapeutic combinations. Gene set enrichment analysis confirmed these biosignatures as critical predictors of tumor progression and indicated that photodynamic therapy activates immune responses similar to those elicited by combined OVT and immune checkpoint inhibitors. This hybrid model represents a significant step toward precision oncology and computational medicine, enabling longitudinal, adaptive treatment regimens and developing targeted immunotherapies based on molecular signatures, potentially improving patient outcomes.

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Abicumaran Uthamacumaran, Juri Kiyokawa, Hiroaki Wakimoto. 2025-01-18. AI-Driven Hybrid Ecological Model for Predicting Oncolytic Viral Therapy Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insi.2026.100258

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