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arXiv · 2501.15340

Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Optimization for Long-Term Contract vs. Spot Allocation Decisions: Application to Electricity Markets

Dimitri J. Papageorgiou
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Abstract

There are numerous industrial settings in which a decision maker must decide whether to enter into long-term contracts to guarantee price (and hence cash flow) stability or to participate in more volatile spot markets. In this paper, we investigate a data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach aimed at balancing this tradeoff. Unlike traditional risk-neutral stochastic optimization models that assume the underlying probability distribution generating the data is known, DRO models assume the distribution belongs to a family of possible distributions, thus providing a degree of immunization against unseen and potential worst-case outcomes. We compare and contrast the performance of a risk-neutral model, conditional value-at-risk formulation, and a Wasserstein distributionally robust model to demonstrate the potential benefits of a DRO approach for an ``elasticity-aware'' price-taking decision maker.

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Dimitri J. Papageorgiou. 2025-01-25. Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Optimization for Long-Term Contract vs. Spot Allocation Decisions: Application to Electricity Markets. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compchemeng.2023.108436

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