Modeling submillimeter galaxies in cosmological simulations: Contribution to the cosmic star formation density and predictions for future surveys

Abstract

Submillimeter galaxies (SMGs) constitute a key population of bright star-forming galaxies at high redshift. These galaxies challenge galaxy formation models, particularly in reproducing their observed number counts and redshift distributions. Furthermore, although SMGs contribute significantly to the cosmic star formation rate density (SFRD), their precise role remains uncertain. Upcoming surveys, such as the Ultra Deep Survey with the TolTEC camera, are expected to offer valuable insights into SMG properties and their broader impact. Robust modeling of SMGs in a cosmologically representative volume is necessary to investigate their nature in preparation for next-generation submillimeter surveys. We implement and test parametric relations derived from radiative transfer calculations across three cosmological simulations: EAGLE, IllustrisTNG, and FLAMINGO. Particular emphasis is placed on the FLAMINGO due to their large volume and robust statistical sampling of SMGs. Based on the model that best reproduces observations, we forecast submillimeter fluxes within the simulations, analyze the properties of SMGs, and evaluate their evolution over cosmic time. Our results show that the FLAMINGO reproduces the observed redshift distribution and source number counts of SMGs without requiring a top-heavy initial mass function. On the other hand, the EAGLE and IllustrisTNG show a deficit of bright SMGs. We find that SMGs with S850 > 1 mJy contribute up to 27% of the SFRD at z=2.6 in the FLAMINGO, consistent with recent observations. Flux density functions reveal a rise in SMG abundance from z = 6 to 2.5, followed by a sharp decline in the number of brighter SMGs from z = 2.5 to 0. Leveraging the SMG population in FLAMINGO, we forecast that the TolTEC UDS will detect 80,000 sources over 0.8 deg^2 at 1.1 mm (at the 4{\sigma} detection limit), capturing about 50% of the cosmic SFRD at z=2.5.