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arXiv · 2502.05622

Social inequality and cultural factors impact the awareness and reaction during the cryptic transmission period of pandemic

Zhuoren Jiang·Xiaozhong Liu·Yangyang Kang·Changlong Sun·Yong-Yeol Ahn·Johan Bollen
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Abstract

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on January 31, 2020. However, rumors of a "mysterious virus" had already been circulating in China in December 2019, possibly preceding the first confirmed COVID-19 case. Understanding how awareness about an emerging pandemic spreads through society is vital not only for enhancing disease surveillance, but also for mitigating demand shocks and social inequities, such as shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) and essential supplies. Here we leverage a massive e-commerce dataset comprising 150 billion online queries and purchase records from 94 million people to detect the traces of early awareness and public response during the cryptic transmission period of COVID-19. Our analysis focuses on identifying information gaps across different demographic cohorts, revealing significant social inequities and the role of cultural factors in shaping awareness diffusion and response behaviors. By modeling awareness diffusion in heterogeneous social networks and analyzing online shopping behavior, we uncover the evolving characteristics of vulnerable populations. Our findings expand the theoretical understanding of awareness spread and social inequality in the early stages of a pandemic, highlighting the critical importance of e-commerce data and social network data in effectively and timely addressing future pandemic challenges. We also provide actionable recommendations to better manage and mitigate dynamic social inequalities in public health crises.

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Zhuoren Jiang, Xiaozhong Liu, Yangyang Kang, Changlong Sun, Yong-Yeol Ahn, Johan Bollen. 2025-02-08. Social inequality and cultural factors impact the awareness and reaction during the cryptic transmission period of pandemic. https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus%2Fpgaf043

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