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arXiv · 2502.15555

Forecasting and Analysis of Solar Energetic Particle Radiation Storms

Olga Malandraki·Michalis Karavolos·Arik Posner·Kostas Tziotziou·Henrik Droege·Bernd Heber·Patrick Kuehl
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Abstract

Solar Energetic Particle (SEPs) with energies ranging from tens of keV to a few GeV, are a significant component in the description of the space environment. In this work, the HESPERIA REleASE product is emphasized, which, based on the Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE) forecasting scheme, generates real-time predictions of the proton flux (30-50 MeV) at L1, making use of relativistic and near-relativistic electron measurements by the SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM experiments, respectively. The HESPERIA REleASE Alert is a notification system based on the forecasts produced by the HESPERIA REleASE product and informs about the expected radiation impact in real-time using an illustration and a distribution system for registered users. We also present and discuss the Advance Warning Times derived for the compiled list of major SEP events successfully forecasted over the last 2.5 years dur-ing solar cycle 25 by HESPERIA REleASE and recent developments.

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Olga Malandraki, Michalis Karavolos, Arik Posner, Kostas Tziotziou, Henrik Droege, Bernd Heber, Patrick Kuehl. 2025-02-21. Forecasting and Analysis of Solar Energetic Particle Radiation Storms. https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.15555

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