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arXiv · 2502.15987

Forecasting Open-Weight AI Model Growth on HuggingFace

Kushal Raj Bhandari·Pin-Yu Chen·Jianxi Gao
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Abstract

As the open-weight AI landscape continues to proliferate-with model development, significant investment, and user interest-it becomes increasingly important to predict which models will ultimately drive innovation and shape AI ecosystems. Building on parallels with citation dynamics in scientific literature, we propose a framework to quantify how an open-weight model's influence evolves. Specifically, we adapt the model introduced by Wang et al. for scientific citations, using three key parameters-immediacy, longevity, and relative fitness-to track the cumulative number of fine-tuned models of an open-weight model. Our findings reveal that this citation-style approach can effectively capture the diverse trajectories of open-weight model adoption, with most models fitting well and outliers indicating unique patterns or abrupt jumps in usage.

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Kushal Raj Bhandari, Pin-Yu Chen, Jianxi Gao. 2025-02-21. Forecasting Open-Weight AI Model Growth on HuggingFace. https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.15987

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