2025 update on $\varepsilon_K$ in the Standard Model with lattice QCD inputs

Abstract

We present theoretical results for the indirect CP violation parameter, $ |\varepsilon_K| $, evaluated directly within the Standard Model using lattice QCD inputs including $ B_K $, $ |V_{cb}| $, $ |V_{us}| $, $ |V_{ud}| $, $ \xi_0 $, $ \xi_2 $, $ F_K $, and the charm quark mass $ m_c $. Our analysis reveals a significant tension at the $ \sim 5\sigma $ level ($ 4.6\sigma $ to $ 5.2\sigma $) between the Standard Model prediction and the experimental value of $ |\varepsilon_K| $. The Standard Model prediction, informed by lattice QCD inputs, accounts for only approximately 65% of the experimental value, leaving a 35% discrepancy unexplained. Notably, this tension vanishes when using the inclusive determination of $ |V_{cb}| $, derived from heavy quark expansion. The discrepancy is therefore tied to the well-known tension between the exclusive and inclusive determinations of $ |V_{cb}| $. We further report results for $ |\varepsilon_K| $ obtained using the Brod--Gorbahn--Stamou (BGS) method based on $ u\text{--}t $ unitarity, which yields an even stronger discrepancy, in the range of $ 4.9\sigma $ to $ 5.5\sigma $, when combined with lattice QCD inputs.