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arXiv · 2503.02137

What Influences the Field Goal Attempts of Professional Players? Analysis of Basketball Shot Charts via Log Gaussian Cox Processes with Spatially Varying Coefficients

Jiahao Cao·Qingpo Cai·Lance A. Waller·DeMarc A. Hickson·Guanyu Hu·Jian Kang
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Abstract

Basketball shot charts provide valuable information regarding local patterns of in-game performance to coaches, players, sports analysts, and statisticians. The spatial patterns of where shots were attempted and whether the shots were successful suggest options for offensive and defensive strategies as well as historical summaries of performance against particular teams and players. The data represent a marked spatio-temporal point process with locations representing locations of attempted shots and an associated mark representing the shot's outcome (made/missed). Here, we develop a Bayesian log Gaussian Cox process model allowing joint analysis of the spatial pattern of locations and outcomes of shots across multiple games. We build a hierarchical model for the log intensity function using Gaussian processes, and allow spatially varying effects for various game-specific covariates. We aim to model the spatial relative risk under different covariate values. For inference via posterior simulation, we design a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on a kernel convolution approach. We illustrate the proposed method using extensive simulation studies. A case study analyzing the shot data of NBA legends Stephen Curry, LeBron James, and Michael Jordan highlights the effectiveness of our approach in real-world scenarios and provides practical insights into optimizing shooting strategies by examining how different playing conditions, game locations, and opposing team strengths impact shooting efficiency.

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Jiahao Cao, Qingpo Cai, Lance A. Waller, DeMarc A. Hickson, Guanyu Hu, Jian Kang. 2025-03-04. What Influences the Field Goal Attempts of Professional Players? Analysis of Basketball Shot Charts via Log Gaussian Cox Processes with Spatially Varying Coefficients. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.02137

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