Radiosonde-constrained reconstructions reveal a weakening Northern Hadley circulation

Abstract

The Northern Hadley cell (NHC) is a fundamental component of Earth's atmospheric circulation, governing precipitation patterns affecting nearly four billion people. Despite its importance, the sign of recent multidecadal trends in NHC strength remains unresolved. Climate models consistently simulate a weakening, whereas reanalyses have suggested an opposing strengthening. Here, we constrain this discrepancy using the global radiosonde record. To assess the NHC, we reconstruct the three-dimensional meridional wind from sparse radiosonde observations using a masked autoencoder graph neural network and apply an identical reconstruction to five modern reanalyses, sampled at the same locations. This paired reconstruction framework reveals a systematic underestimation of climatological NHC strength across all reanalyses, corroborated in ERA5 by systematic data assimilation increments that persistently strengthen the circulation. Most importantly, our radiosonde-based reconstructions provide vertically resolved observational evidence of a statistically significant weakening of the NHC since 1980, reconciling observations with climate model projections. The weakening is consistently reproduced by all reanalysis-based reconstructions and is robust across training datasets and analysis periods, strengthening confidence in projected changes in the Hadley circulation. More broadly, this study establishes a temporally homogeneous reconstruction framework for evaluating large-scale circulation changes and assessing both reanalysis products and climate model projections.