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arXiv · 2503.07466

European supercell thunderstorms -- an underestimated current threat and an increasing future hazard

Monika Feldmann·Michael Blanc·Killian P. Brennan·Iris Thurnherr·Patricio Velasquez·Olivia Martius·Christoph Schär
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Abstract

Supercell thunderstorms are the most hazardous thunderstorm category and particularly impactful to society. Their monitoring is challenging and often confined to the radar networks of single countries. By exploiting kilometer-scale climate simulations, a first-of-its-kind characterization of supercell occurrence in Europe is derived for the current and a warmer climate. Despite previous notions of supercells being uncommon in Europe, the model shows ~700 supercells per convective season. Occurrence peaks are co-located with complex topography e.g. the Alps. The absolute frequency maximum lies along the southern Alps with minima over the oceans and flat areas. Contrasting a current-climate simulation with a pseudo-global-warming +3$^\circ$C global warming scenario, the future climate simulation shows an average increase of supercell occurrence by 11 %. However, there is a spatial dipole of change with strong increases in supercell frequencies in central and eastern Europe and a decrease in frequency over the Iberian Peninsula and southwestern France.

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Monika Feldmann, Michael Blanc, Killian P. Brennan, Iris Thurnherr, Patricio Velasquez, Olivia Martius, Christoph Schär. 2025-03-10. European supercell thunderstorms -- an underestimated current threat and an increasing future hazard. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.07466

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