"Dark comet" 2005 VL$_1$ is unlikely to be the lost Soviet-era probe Venera 2

Abstract

Loeb & Cloete (2025) intriguingly suggest that the near-Earth object 2005 VL$_1$ could be the lost Soviet probe Venera 2. Here I evaluate the plausibility of such a claim against the available data. I have re-determined the orbit of 2005 VL$_1$ (including a non-gravitational acceleration component) using the astrometric observations retrieved from the Minor Planet Center (MPC) database. By propagating the orbit of 2005 VL$_1$ over the period of the Venera 2 mission, I compare this object's distance from the Earth and from Venus at the times of the probe's launch and flyby with Venus, respectively. My analysis, which takes into account realistic uncertainties on both the orbit of 2005 VL1 and the position of Venera 2, decisively rules out the proposed identification. My approach relies entirely on open-source software and publicly available data, and could represent a viable method to assess similar claims in the future.