Nonlinear Forecast Error Variance Decompositions with Hermite Polynomials

Quinlan Lee

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arXiv · 2503.11416

Nonlinear Forecast Error Variance Decompositions with Hermite Polynomials

Quinlan Lee

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Abstract

A novel approach to Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVD) in nonlinear Structural Vector Autoregressive models with Gaussian innovations is proposed, called the Hermite FEVD (HFEVD). This method employs a Hermite polynomial expansion to approximate the future trajectory of a nonlinear process. The orthogonality of Hermite polynomials under the Gaussian density facilitates the construction of the decomposition, providing a separation of shock effects by time horizon, by components of the structural innovation and by degree of nonlinearity. A link between the HFEVD and nonlinear Impulse Response Functions is established and distinguishes between marginal and interaction contributions of shocks. Simulation results from standard nonlinear models are provided as illustrations and an application to fiscal policy shocks is examined.

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Quinlan Lee. 2025-03-14. Nonlinear Forecast Error Variance Decompositions with Hermite Polynomials. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.11416

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