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arXiv · 2503.12425

The latest monthly highs suggest that the 1.5{\deg}C Paris Agreement threshold will probably be exceeded before 2028

Erhard Reschenhofer
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Abstract

An attempt is made to estimate and forecast the trend of the global annual and monthly mean temperatures. The results of a conventional statistical analysis suggest that in the absence of unforeseeable events such as a sudden acceleration in the rate of warming, the 1.5{\deg}C Paris Agreement threshold could be exceeded between 2027 and 2031. However, carrying out a proper seasonal adjustment and examining the autocorrelation structure carefully, we find in a subsequent purely statistical simulation study that even the pessimistic scenario of a breach in late 2027 is inconsistent with the recent monthly highs, which means that it will probably happen much sooner.

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Erhard Reschenhofer. 2025-03-16. The latest monthly highs suggest that the 1.5{\deg}C Paris Agreement threshold will probably be exceeded before 2028. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.12425

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