Climatic Phase Transitions Unravel the Onset and Withdrawal of Indian Monsoon

Abstract

The livelihood and food security of more than a billion people depend on the Indian monsoon (IM). Yet, a universal definition of the large-scale season and progress of IM is missing. Even though IM is a planetary-scale convectively coupled system arising largely from seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the definitions of its onset and progression are based on local weather observations, making them practically inutile due to the detection of bogus onsets. Using climate networks, we show that small-scale clusters of locally defined rainfall onsets coalesce through two abrupt climatic phase transitions defining large-scale monsoon onsets over Northeast India and the Indian peninsula, respectively. These abrupt transitions are interspersed with continuous growth of clusters. Breaking the conventional wisdom that IM starts from southern peninsula and expands northward and westward, we unveil that IM starts from Northeast India and expands westward and northward, covering the entire country. We show that the large-scale monsoon onset over the Indian peninsula is critically dependent on the characteristics of monsoon onset over Northeast India. Unlike existing definitions, a rapid and consistent northward propagation of rainfall establishing the ITCZ manifests after our network-based onset dates. Thus, our definition captures the IM onset better than the existing definitions.