Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2503.16297

Aging and mortality of persons with HIV: a novel Kalman Filtering and DMD framework

Alex Viguerie·Elisa Iacomini
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Due to the widespread availability of effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens, average lifespans of persons with HIV (PWH) in the United States have increased significantly in recent decades. In turn, the demographic profile of PWH has shifted. Older persons comprise an ever-increasing percentage of PWH, with this percentage expected to further increase in the coming years. This has profound implications for HIV treatment and care, as significant resources are required not only to manage HIV itself, but associated age-related comorbidities and health conditions that occur in aging PWH. Effective management of these challenges in the coming years requires accurate modeling of the PWH age structure. In the present work, we introduce several novel mathematical approaches related to this problem. We present a workflow combining a PDE model for the PWH population age structure, into which publicly-available HIV surveillance data is assimilated using the Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) algorithm. This procedure allows us to rigorously reconstruct the age-dependent mortality trends for PWH over the last several decades. To project future trends, we introduce and analyze a novel variant of the Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD), nonnegative DMD. We show that nonnegative DMD provides physically-consistent projections of mortality and HIV diagnosis while remaining purely data-driven, and not requiring additional assumptions. We then combine these elements to provide forecasts for future trends in PWDH mortality and demographic evolution in the coming years.

Explore related subjects

math.DSq-bio.PE

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Alex Viguerie, Elisa Iacomini. 2025-03-20. Aging and mortality of persons with HIV: a novel Kalman Filtering and DMD framework. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.16297

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Admissible Fourier Lengths, KAM Reducibility, and Spectral Applications

We develop a perturbative KAM reducibility theory for one-frequency $\mathrm{SL}(2,\mathbb{R})$ cocycles based on an admissible Fourier length $\ell$. The regularity relevant to the iteration is measured by positive adapted Fourier width rather than ordinary smoothness in the Euclidean length $|n|$. The same length governs Fourier decay, truncation and resonance scales, and the arithmetic condition controlling the small divisors. This framework contains the classical analytic and Gevrey settings, while non-monotone choices of $\ell$ allow classical nowhere differentiable Weierstrass-type perturbations and continuous perturbations outside every positive H\"older class. As spectral applications, we obtain purely absolutely continuous spectrum for every phase and $1/2$-H\"older continuity of the integrated density of states for the associated quasiperiodic Schr\"odinger operators. The Aubry dual has pure point spectrum for Lebesgue almost every dual phase, with eigenfunctions exponentially localized in the metric induced by $\ell$. We also construct nowhere differentiable quasiperiodic potentials with purely absolutely continuous Cantor spectrum.

math.DS↗
arXiv2026

Dynamics inside the attracting basins of some skew products

Polynomial skew products in $\mathbb{C}^2$ are maps of the form $F(z,w)=(P(z),Q(z,w))$, where $P$ and $Q$ are polynomials. Their local dynamics have been widely investigated. In this paper, we study the global dynamics inside Fatou components of some skew products. We consider all the inverse images in a Fatou component of a given point and use the Kobayashi metric to measure the distance between points. In the cases we consider, there are always arbitrarily large Kobayashi balls in the complement of these inverse sets.

math.DS↗
arXiv2026

Ergodicity of dynamical systems without uniqueness of orbits

Recently, there has been considerable interest in the study of non-deterministic dynamical systems. To analyze the chaotic behavior of such systems from a measure-theoretic viewpoint, it is desirable to consider ergodicity. However, the classical definition of ergodicity involves invariant sets, whose definition is not unique for non-deterministic dynamical systems. Thus, we are led to the question of which invariance yields an interesting definition of ergodicity. Here, we propose a definition based on the strong backward invariance and show that analogs of classical results hold. We also consider implications of the Birkhoff ergodic theorem for systems without uniqueness of orbits.

math.DS↗