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arXiv · 2503.17790

Spatiotemporal Impact of Trade Policy Variables on Asian Manufacturing Hubs: Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression Model

Lutfu S. Sua·Haibo Wang·Jun Huang
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Abstract

A novel spatiotemporal framework using diverse econometric approaches is proposed in this research to analyze relationships among eight economy-wide variables in varying market conditions. Employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality, we explore trade policy effects on emerging manufacturing hubs in China, India, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. A Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (BGVAR) model also assesses interaction of cross unit and perform Unconditional and Conditional Forecasts. Utilizing time-series data from the Asian Development Bank, our study reveals multi-way cointegration and dynamic connectedness relationships among key economy-wide variables. This innovative framework enhances investment decisions and policymaking through a data-driven approach.

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Lutfu S. Sua, Haibo Wang, Jun Huang. 2025-03-22. Spatiotemporal Impact of Trade Policy Variables on Asian Manufacturing Hubs: Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression Model. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.17790

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