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arXiv · 2504.09728

Sleeping Beauty and Markov chains

Dawid Tarłowski
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Abstract

Sleeping Beauty Problem (SBP) is a probability puzzle which has created much confusion in the literature. In this paper we present the analysis of SBP with use of ergodic Markov chains. The presented model formally connects two different answers to the problem and clarifies some errors related to the frequentist analysis of the paradox.

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Dawid Tarłowski. 2025-04-13. Sleeping Beauty and Markov chains. https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.09728

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