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arXiv · 2504.11721

Scenario-based actuarial climate risk assessment via calibration of the DICE model to the shared socioeconomic pathways

Daisuke Murakami·Pavel V. Shevchenko·Tomoko Matsui·Aleksandar Arandjelović·Tor A. Myrvoll
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Abstract

Accounting for climate-related risks is an emerging problem for life insurers around the world. In this paper, we demonstrate how scenario trajectories for global temperature can be obtained using the cost-benefit Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model calibrated to the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). These scenarios can also be calculated under different carbon emission mitigation targets such as achieving net-zero carbon emissions by a specific year. We show how to calibrate the DICE model to align industrial and land-use carbon emissions with projections from six leading process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs): IMAGE, MESSAGE--GLOBIOM, AIM/CGE, GCAM, REMIND--MAgPIE and WITCH--GLOBIOM. The obtained scenario trajectories of global temperature can be linked to the climate-change induced excess mortality in various regions that, in turn, can be used for stress testing of life insurance portfolios. We illustrate this using synthetic portfolios of life insurance and annuity products.

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Daisuke Murakami, Pavel V. Shevchenko, Tomoko Matsui, Aleksandar Arandjelović, Tor A. Myrvoll. 2025-04-16. Scenario-based actuarial climate risk assessment via calibration of the DICE model to the shared socioeconomic pathways. https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.11721

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