Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2504.15807

Evaluating the potential of HIV self-testing to reduce HIV incidence in EHE districts: a modeling study

Alex Viguerie
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Background: High HIV transmission persists in many U.S. jurisdictions despite prevention efforts. HIV self-testing offers a means to overcome barriers associated with routine laboratory-based testing but carries a risk of increasing incidence if replacement effects reduce overall test sensitivity. Methods: A linearized four-compartment HIV transmission model was applied to 38 Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) priority jurisdictions. A threshold testing level was defined to counterbalance potential negative effects from reduced self-test sensitivity. Both the percentage of self-tests and the overall testing rate were varied to quantify 10-year changes in HIV incidence. Results: Substantial heterogeneity emerged across districts. Incidence reductions exceeded 5 percent in some areas, while others saw only minor effects. Jurisdictions with higher baseline testing displayed an elevated risk of increased incidence from substitution of laboratory-based testing with self-tests. In contrast, a derived Awareness Reproduction Number, capturing transmissions attributable to undiagnosed infection, strongly correlated with the magnitude of possible incidence declines. Conclusions: Local epidemiological context is pivotal in determining the risks and benefits of HIV self-testing. Jurisdictions with robust testing systems may face a greater likelihood of inadvertently raising incidence, whereas those with a high number of individuals stand to achieve notable transmission reductions. Tailoring self-testing strategies based on jurisdiction-specific conditions can maximize public health benefits while minimizing unintended consequences.

Explore related subjects

math.DS

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Alex Viguerie. 2025-04-22. Evaluating the potential of HIV self-testing to reduce HIV incidence in EHE districts: a modeling study. https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.15807

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Admissible Fourier Lengths, KAM Reducibility, and Spectral Applications

We develop a perturbative KAM reducibility theory for one-frequency $\mathrm{SL}(2,\mathbb{R})$ cocycles based on an admissible Fourier length $\ell$. The regularity relevant to the iteration is measured by positive adapted Fourier width rather than ordinary smoothness in the Euclidean length $|n|$. The same length governs Fourier decay, truncation and resonance scales, and the arithmetic condition controlling the small divisors. This framework contains the classical analytic and Gevrey settings, while non-monotone choices of $\ell$ allow classical nowhere differentiable Weierstrass-type perturbations and continuous perturbations outside every positive H\"older class. As spectral applications, we obtain purely absolutely continuous spectrum for every phase and $1/2$-H\"older continuity of the integrated density of states for the associated quasiperiodic Schr\"odinger operators. The Aubry dual has pure point spectrum for Lebesgue almost every dual phase, with eigenfunctions exponentially localized in the metric induced by $\ell$. We also construct nowhere differentiable quasiperiodic potentials with purely absolutely continuous Cantor spectrum.

math.DS↗
arXiv2026

Dynamics inside the attracting basins of some skew products

Polynomial skew products in $\mathbb{C}^2$ are maps of the form $F(z,w)=(P(z),Q(z,w))$, where $P$ and $Q$ are polynomials. Their local dynamics have been widely investigated. In this paper, we study the global dynamics inside Fatou components of some skew products. We consider all the inverse images in a Fatou component of a given point and use the Kobayashi metric to measure the distance between points. In the cases we consider, there are always arbitrarily large Kobayashi balls in the complement of these inverse sets.

math.DS↗
arXiv2026

Ergodicity of dynamical systems without uniqueness of orbits

Recently, there has been considerable interest in the study of non-deterministic dynamical systems. To analyze the chaotic behavior of such systems from a measure-theoretic viewpoint, it is desirable to consider ergodicity. However, the classical definition of ergodicity involves invariant sets, whose definition is not unique for non-deterministic dynamical systems. Thus, we are led to the question of which invariance yields an interesting definition of ergodicity. Here, we propose a definition based on the strong backward invariance and show that analogs of classical results hold. We also consider implications of the Birkhoff ergodic theorem for systems without uniqueness of orbits.

math.DS↗